lauralh: (cynical or sarcastic)
[personal profile] lauralh
You know how birth rates in red states are a million times higher than in blue states? Nothing is more annoying than Johnny Biblebeater taking this fact to mean that all his team needs to do is wait and they'll control the nation again. Granted, if he actually did nothing that would be one thing. But I think he knows just as well as I do that it just isn't true. I'm certainly not the only person who was raised in a red state/area and moved to a blue state/area. The apple sometimes falls REALLY FUCKING FAR from the tree.

edit: map I found of population changes in the US over the past ten years.

Date: 2006-01-26 12:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] skiplogic.livejournal.com
I think you're the exception, not the rule.

Date: 2006-01-26 12:56 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
how many people do you know in seattle who came from small conservative towns?

Date: 2006-01-26 01:07 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] skiplogic.livejournal.com
Not many? I dont know actually. I could ask around.

Date: 2006-01-26 04:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mxtx.livejournal.com
Tons, dude. Everyone you know who didn't grow up in Seattle grew up in a small conservative town.

Date: 2006-01-26 04:27 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] skiplogic.livejournal.com
are you being serious? I think most of the people I know that didn't grow up in Seattle either grew up in Eugene, OR (which is most definately not a conservative town), Portland (which is not small), SF, or Vancouver BC? I know a couple guys who lived in Northern Idaho, but I'm reaching.

Date: 2006-01-26 04:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mxtx.livejournal.com
Hmph. Okay so my sweeping uneducated guess was a tad off. But yes -- I am being serious inasmuch as almost everyone I know grew up in a small conservative town. Including me. Take that, exception finding bitches!

Date: 2006-01-26 05:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
EVERYONE ON THIS THREAD

Date: 2006-01-26 05:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] skiplogic.livejournal.com
heh.

I barely know you and [livejournal.com profile] mxtx

Date: 2006-01-26 01:08 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] skiplogic.livejournal.com
being a damn liberal myself, I think my associates are a poor sample set

Date: 2006-01-26 01:39 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chris.livejournal.com
i did, even if it was still in washington.

Date: 2006-01-26 06:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chris.livejournal.com
Marysville. its pretty suburban and kinda the tip of the I-5 metro area, but its still a cowtown.

Date: 2006-01-26 01:43 am (UTC)

Date: 2006-01-26 01:03 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] candid.livejournal.com
I think you're the exception, not the rule.

If you think about the "apostates" that you know, they probably all come from the top, say, fifth of the IQ distribution. That leaves something like 80% of the apples falling close to the tree.

Date: 2006-01-26 01:09 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Population/Popchange/map.htm

Date: 2006-01-26 06:17 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kamakhai.livejournal.com
i have to say i find it hilarious that the map classifies the 45,000 person town i'm from in north dakota as "metro" (it's the upper of the two white counties on the eastern border with minnesota). also amusing that ND is by far the reddest state on the map, the only growth displayed being in southern indian reservations and a northern county known for having about the only pleasantly hilly lake resort area in the state.

ANYWAYS, i'm definitely in agreement with your main point. i can't say it's true for everyone, but i rejected the conservative ideals i was brought up with as soon as i was old enough to form an understanding of what was going on in the rest of the world (and the knowledge that the people trying to get me to accept these things were dumb enough to voluntarily stay in north dakota probably meant something). i know i'm not exactly typical and that most people are a lot less analytical, but the majority of the kids i grew up with followed a similar path. i think the greater percentage of people really aren't stupid... they just don't care about anything but themselves, which has mixed implications for the issue of religion.

Date: 2006-01-26 05:59 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ernunnos.livejournal.com
Still, many of the midwestern states are barely hanging on when it comes to population growth. And losing your best and brightest while keeping all your welfare cases isn't exactly a great plan for progress.

Date: 2006-01-26 01:50 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chris.livejournal.com
yeah, i've had this same discussion in regards to conservative veiwpoints that islam is going to take over europe for the same reason. aside from economics, its all about free-flow of information. people dont really want to stay ignorant and repressive, but if that's all they know, then they do. in a westernized society (with free and abundant access to information) this is particularly difficult.

and despite the obvious fact that conservatives and religious types (be it in this continent or some other) tend to have tons of children, even if they cant support them, and concientious free-thinking liberals might have few to none, it sure looks like society continues to get more and more progressive overall as the years go by.

Date: 2006-01-26 04:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] skiplogic.livejournal.com
this I agree with, but I doubt it's a direct result of the migratory habits of small-town folk.

Date: 2006-01-26 02:48 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] altamira16.livejournal.com
Let them keep having kids, then we can strip medicaid and social security. They'll be screwed. And we'd be conservatives. Nevermind.

Date: 2006-01-26 03:08 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] crasch.livejournal.com
Unfortunately, I suspect we're in the minority. I read somewhere that the percentage of apostates who later return to religion is quite high. (Can't find the reference though, so take the assertion with a big grain of salt).

However, I do think that religions can become less virulent. Christianity has become much less aggressive, in general, in the last 400 years or so. Same with Judaism. Same with Mormonism (Although Smith's assassination was deplorable, I find it amusing that the Church never discusses *why* J. Smith was in that Carthage jail. I guess they decided that story of how his goons destroyed the presses at the Nauvoo Expositor wasn't such good PR).

So even if religious folk have more kids, it probably doesn't matter much, since most of the religious don't really take their religion seriously anyway.

(Unfortunately, Islam doesn't seem to have decreased in virulence much. If anything, Islam appears to have become more virulent since the middle ages. I'm not sure exactly why that is.)

Date: 2006-01-26 02:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] perich.livejournal.com
Sorry, you're the exception, not the rule.

I moved from the conservative suburbs of Baltimore to ultra-liberal Boston. I've lived here for over six years. In that time, I've met a dozen or so people who moved from Maryland as well. But they all moved from liberal southern Maryland (Silver Springs, Columbia, Montgomery County - the "inside the Beltway" stretch) to liberal Boston. Very few people made the transition from conservative northern Baltimore County* to liberal Beantown.

Though migration is becoming more feasible as the world gets smaller, people tend to stick where they grew up. So high conservative birthrates mean more conservatives in 20 years.



* Seriously, you should see my parents' property.

Date: 2006-01-26 04:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
Yeah but your anecdotal evidence doesn't prove anything. Most of my friends are actually from small conservative areas in Washington.

Date: 2006-01-26 04:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] perich.livejournal.com
Your anecdotal evidence doesn't prove anything either!

Date: 2006-01-26 05:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
yeah but you don't expect me to not bring it up, do ya?

Date: 2006-01-26 05:27 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] perich.livejournal.com
You don't make a whit of sense! Not one whit!

Date: 2006-01-26 04:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mxtx.livejournal.com
you're upsetting the baby with this kind of talk

Date: 2006-01-26 04:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] perich.livejournal.com
That baby is the future of our country, as are its nine brothers and sisters, its thirty-four cousins and step-cousins, and its future employer, the DQ.

Date: 2006-01-26 05:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
as long as none of them vote

Also:

Date: 2006-01-26 02:50 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] perich.livejournal.com
Read Cyril M. Kornbluth's "The Marching Morons." Hell, read any C.M. Kornbluth, but read that first.

I just washed my soapbox

Date: 2006-01-26 04:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mxtx.livejournal.com
What gets me about this is that people like that still believe that size matters. I say go ahead -- populate the shit out of the rural wastelands in this country. Go ahead and sap your small town resources feeding your 13 bratty kids and lock yourself into a perpetual state of poverty and stunt social progress to the point that your existence loses all relevance to anyone beyond a five-mile radius. They're not taking any of my resources, so fuck 'em -- overpopulate and rot inbred bitches!

Re: I just washed my soapbox

Date: 2006-01-26 05:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
Oh Michael, you're such a sensitive sap.

Re: I just washed my soapbox

Date: 2006-01-26 05:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mxtx.livejournal.com
I just really miss the rage that fueled my youth. Is it so wrong to try to recreate the glory days of high school?

come skiing!

Date: 2006-01-26 05:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bewing.livejournal.com
I agree with the basic premise, but not your logic.
Young, naive kids tend to be idealistic, and impractical -- and therefore more likely to be liberal.
As they age, and discover that liberal theory does not actually work in the realms of, say, economics and foreign policy -- they become more conservative.

So my theory is that the red/blue areas of states and the country are simply age maps. The red areas have disproportionate numbers of old people, because many of the young liberal kids leave. And the blue areas are full of those young liberal kids who have left.

Date: 2006-01-26 06:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chris.livejournal.com
I agree that older people tend to be more conservative, but I think that has more to do with people staying roughly the same and the times themselves changing.

as far as your geographic spread, san francisco for example has a much older population than you might expect, mostly because you have to be somewhat older and successful to afford living there, yet its still one of the most (if not the most) liberal cities in the country.

Date: 2006-01-26 06:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
hell seattle itself has a pretty decent fogey collection. I talked to one of them once, she was from Chicago and wanted to retire someplace warm, but not as ridiculously warm as FL.

Date: 2006-01-26 06:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] herbaliser.livejournal.com
not that you meant elderly necessarily but still interesting (http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_65plus.html).

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